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Demographic crisis of Russia

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Demographic crisis of Russia relates to possible demographic problems of the Russian Federation. The crisis began to unfold in the beginning of the 1990s.

History[edit]

Total population of Russia 1950–2010

In the economic sphere[edit]

The demographic crisis has a positive economic effect on the second stage of the changing age structure of the population (the fraction of the average working-age generation is maximal at a relatively small proportion of younger and older) and a negative economic effect on the third stage of the changing age structure of the population (when the proportion of the older generation is maximal at a relatively small share younger and middle generation). By 2025, Russia will have labor shortages.[citation needed]

With a reduced fertility rate, the load on the working population increases because each worker has to support more retirees.

The rapid rise in the birth rate in a short period of time is difficult to implement due to economic reasons; sharply increased social spending on the old generation, which in the future will only bring troubles.[citation needed]


In education[edit]

The number of high school graduates in Russia has steadily decreased, so universities have to compete for each applicant. Due to the demographic crisis, there is potential for a reduction in the number of universities in the country.[citation needed]

The number of university students in 2013 will amount to 4.2 million, a decrease of more than 40% in relation to the number of students in 2009 (7.4 million).[citation needed]

According to the Education Minister Andrei Fursenko,[when?] the demographic crisis will help get rid of the high schools that provide poor quality education.[citation needed]


In the field of defense[edit]

One of the consequences of the demographic crisis is a reduced mobilization potential for the country's armed forces. The demographic crisis affects the nature of the military reform, forcing the military to reduce their numbers, cancel deferments from military service, and eventually move towards hired contractors.[citation needed]

In the social sphere[edit]

Mr. Professor Antonov AI notes, that the world has tended to strengthen the organization of life without family, to a convenient and unobtrusive solitary bachelor existence, the Stockholm model. And, as a consequence, the number of children in families, which, in turn, leads to a sharp change in the whole system of life, value systems, the weakening of fatherhood and motherhood, unity of parents and children, the disappearance of the roles of brother and sister, disrupt kinship systems.[citation needed]

Demographic aging of the population[edit]

Russia at the end of the 19th century was a country with a young population: the number of children significantly exceeded the number of the elderly. Up to 1938, the population of the Soviet Union remained "demographically young", but later, since 1959, began its demographic aging: the proportion of young age began to decline, and the elderly – to increase, which was the result of lower fertility. This was not unique to Russia, and such issues have been felt in many developed countries and increasingly in many developing countries aswell. In 1990, Russia ranked 25th in the list of countries with high rates of population aging. Currently, the share of people aged 65 and older in the population of Russia is 13%. According to forecasts of the Russian Academy of Sciences from the early 2000's,[citation needed] in 2016 elderly people aged over 60 would have accounted for 20% of Russians, and children up to 15 years would only have made up 17%. However in Russia, in contrast to other countries, aging is being limited by high mortality among older people.

Threats[edit]

A number of researchers believe that the depopulation affected the Russian people to a greater extent than other peoples living in Russia. According to Rybakovskii, the real (and not the census) number of Russians for the period from 1989 to 2002 decreased by 7%, while the overall country population – only by 1.3%. According to Beloborodov, by the year 2025 85–90% of the population decline in Russia will be due to Russians and in the course of the next 20 years the percentage of Russians as a rough estimate will drop to about 60 to 70%. He predicts also that in 2050, the proportion of Russians in Russia will amount to 46.5%. Some researchers, considering the reduction of the indigenous population as a result of the demographic crisis, given accompanying high immigration (in the case of lack of assimilation of migrants), have made very alarming forecasts. As one of the likely consequences of the demographic crisis some researchers point to a deep change in the future ethno-religious composition of the population (with a share of more than 20% of migrants appear closed ethnic groups, assimilation difficult and exacerbated ethnic conflicts). By 2030, one in five people of Russia will practice Islam. A graphic example of ethnic aspect of the demographic crisis: now a third of all the births in Moscow accounts for migrants, which would change the ethnic and religious composition of the population of Moscow in the nearest future. Reduction of the indigenous population by increasing the share of migrants in the opinion of some researchers may lead to future loss of the territorial integrity of Russia. Chances are that the first territorial losses will be in Siberia and Russian Far East. This is due both to the depopulation of these lands because of low birth rates and internal migration to the European part of Russia, and to the demographic pressure from Asian countries (especially China). For the first time in the history of Russian Siberia, its population is steadily declining.[citation needed]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

Literature[edit]